Disasters and Political Mobilization

Abstract: While disasters can stoke conflict and reduce political trust, they can also create opportunities for citizens to make new demands on states. Drawing on the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS), a nationally representative panel spanning 1,420 villages and 1,042 urban neighborhoods, this project examines the long-run effects of disasters on citizen political behavior and governance practices in contexts of limited state capacity. Preliminary evidence from original surveys, interviews, and focus groups with government officials and civil society workers in two climate-vulnerable Indian states shows that disasters increase political activism and claim-making by citizens. Specifically, higher exposure to slow-onset events such as recurrent floods and droughts is associated with greater protest participation, increased involvement in community affairs, and greater campaign engagement during local elections. We’re now looking to use panel data to examine if these effects on political behavior persist in the long-run, and how local governments respond when citizens mobilize politically in the aftermath of a disaster.